Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3164…3c65
weather · 705 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,687 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,612 · open +$91
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,538
Realized+$1,612
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses405 / 168
Open positions130
Markets (closed)573 / 705
History coverage8d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day459.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 130 History 573 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$1,547
14 days+$1,612
30 days+$1,612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 82¢ 98¢ $108 $128 +$21 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? No 91¢ 95¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? No 91¢ 94¢ $89 $93 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 73¢ 82¢ $80 $90 +$10 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? No 90¢ 90¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? No 91¢ 94¢ $79 $82 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? No 89¢ 99¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? No 90¢ 96¢ $67 $71 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? No 90¢ 92¢ $67 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 82¢ 95¢ $58 $66 +$9 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 86¢ 78¢ $73 $66 −$7 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? No 90¢ 99¢ $59 $65 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 87¢ 82¢ $67 $64 −$3 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 88¢ 96¢ $58 $63 +$5 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 80¢ 80¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? No 89¢ 80¢ $69 $62 −$7 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? No 88¢ 92¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 81¢ 90¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 91¢ 92¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? No 82¢ 80¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 89¢ 92¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 91¢ 99¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? No 91¢ 95¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? No 91¢ 96¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $62 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $28 −$6 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +525%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $19 −$1 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $15 −$11 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $68 −$6 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$3 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 −$7 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$19 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $74 +$12 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$6 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 −$27 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$14 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $73 +$11 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$3 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 −$11 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $61 −$24 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 13 $7 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,703
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $9 11m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $22 27m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $21 37m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $68 37m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $54 37m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $1 55m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $4 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 64¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 48¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 47¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 85¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 85¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 51¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 571 +21.0% +9.5% 71% 35% -2.2%
≤30d 573 +21.9% +10.3% 71% 35% -1.9%
≤90d 573 +21.9% +10.3% 71% 35% -1.9%
all 573 +21.9% +10.3% 71% 35% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover459.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.3% 35% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -0.2% 11% -11.3%
15% -9.9% 7% -19.8%
20% -18.7% 6% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,537.60 · official $3,535.85 (match) · 3500 history records