Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3167…32a2 sports 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$683 (+2%) realized +$1,169 · open −$486
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%12W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$497est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$13,270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-70.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -42.3% -47.8% 33% 33% -99.5%
≤30d 25 -50.5% -55.2% 24% 16% -54.5%
≤90d 82 -67.5% -70.6% 15% 10% -66.4%
all 82 -67.5% -70.6% 15% 10% -66.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.6% 10% -66.4%
10% -73.4% 7% -69.7%
15% -76.0% 7% -72.6%
20% -78.3% 5% -75.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -75% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$190 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized+$1,169
Unrealized−$486
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses12 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$497
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage43d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 95¢ 99¢ $856 $884 +$28 (+3%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Enjoy 10¢ 1¢ $100 $14 −$86 (-86%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Rune Eaters 40¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $1 +$1 +73%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $599 −$142 -24%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $315 −$150 -48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $324 +$33 +10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $534 −$200 -38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $203 +$120 +59%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $641 −$263 -41%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $537 −$329 -61%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $708 −$347 -49%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $631 −$51 -8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $348 −$35 -10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $631 −$411 -65%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $4 +$1 +38%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $206 −$201 -98%
Dota 2: Rostikfacekid Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $286 −$200 -70%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $205 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,049 −$153 -15%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,320 −$580 -44%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $203 +$189 +93%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $387 −$181 -47%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $688 −$44 -6%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $494 −$288 -58%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $143 −$41 -29%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $733 −$36 -5%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $300 −$95 -32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $342 −$200 -58%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $1,677 −$778 -46%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1,095 −$647 -59%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $1,686 −$753 -45%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $436 −$230 -53%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1,506 −$36 -2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 21 $426 −$20 -5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $880 −$466 -53%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $473 −$166 -35%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $305 +$37 +12%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $767 −$270 -35%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $316 −$161 -51%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $703 −$385 -55%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 17 $491 −$184 -38%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 17 $607 −$407 -67%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 17 $477 −$150 -31%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner May 17 $178 −$100 -56%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner May 17 $163 −$61 -37%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 17 $451 −$195 -43%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 17 $293 −$139 -47%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 17 $152 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 16 $308 +$24 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $856 10m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 10¢ $103 13m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 100¢ $950 38m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 80¢ $1 48m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 32¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 31¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 43¢ $156 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 56¢ $203 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 42¢ $254 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $642 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 80¢ $201 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 38¢ $145 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 64¢ $253 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 100¢ $299 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 54¢ $163 4h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 50¢ $152 4h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $121 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $474 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 56¢ $203 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 69¢ $329 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 42¢ $203 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $323 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $1 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 99¢ $1 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 62¢ $202 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $707 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $65 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $202 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 42¢ $171 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $898.82 · official $898.92 (match) · 338 history records