Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x3169…63c1 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 40% −$2
other 24% −$2
politics 21% −$2
world 6% −$1
sports 5% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 18 -0.4% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage91d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 24 $1,182 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $1,161 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 23 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $14 $0 -3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $17 $0 -3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 13 $165 −$1 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March? Mar 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Mar 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 25 $41 $0 +1%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 25 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 7m
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 26m
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $30 34m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $843 53m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $317 1h
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,193 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 32h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,171 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 32h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $909 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $54 32h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $230 33h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 33h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,140 33h
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 67d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 67d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 67d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 67d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $164 67d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $164 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $159 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $159 69d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $164 69d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 92¢ $165 69d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 69d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 69d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $165 72d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $165 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.98 · official $92.98 (match) · 52 history records