Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x3169…593a crypto 45 markets active 14h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate76%34W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +10.0% -0.5% 86% 52% -11.4%
≤30d 39 +8.1% -2.2% 82% 51% -12.1%
≤90d 45 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 49% -13.2%
all 45 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 49% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 49% -13.2%
10% -19.0% 40% -21.5%
15% -26.8% 20% -29.1%
20% -34.0% 13% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses34 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage30d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$59 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $63 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records