Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$4,778

7 days−$4,778

14 days−$4,778

30 days−$4,778

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$9,654	$10,740	+$1,086 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$9,999	$9,583	−$416 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$9,716	$9,054	−$662 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$9,427	$8,142	−$1,285 (-14%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Under	58¢	0¢	$4,778	$0	−$4,778 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$4,838	−$4,778	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 67% −$2,363

crypto 22% +$1,086

sports 11% −$4,778

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	58¢	$4,838	9h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10,001	44h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$9,707	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4,770	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5,526	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4,937	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4,075	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$919	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10% ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.