Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x316a…99df other 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 147L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$20
politics 24% −$14
sports 23% −$13
economics 7% −$2
crypto 5% −$3
world 5% −$5
culture 3% −$10
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 73 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 169 -0.3% -9.8% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage164d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $366 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $234 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $514 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $213 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 03 $51 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $301 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Apr 30 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 28 $64 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 22 $136 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $373 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $41 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $551 −$2 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 13 $49 −$5 -11%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $196 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $41 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $46 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $47 13d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 21d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 21d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 30d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 30d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $56 38d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $56 38d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $42 48d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $43 48d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 48d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 48d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $55 48d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $55 48d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $47 48d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $47 49d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $38 49d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $39 49d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $62 49d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $62 49d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $57 49d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $57 49d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $67 49d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $3 50d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $27 50d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $37 50d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $50 50d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $50 50d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.07 · official $41.07 (match) · 783 history records