Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x316b…8d96 other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-3%) realized −$144 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate51%45W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$17
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$110
world 11% −$4
crypto 10% −$48
economics 2% $0
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.9% -11.2% 17% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 46 -8.3% -17.1% 41% 13% -12.9%
≤90d 88 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 19% -12.8%
all 88 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 19% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 19% -12.8%
10% -17.3% 15% -21.2%
15% -25.3% 12% -28.8%
20% -32.6% 11% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses45 / 43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage75d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $57 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 97¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $56 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 16 $58 $0 -1%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 15 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $59 −$4 -6%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $78 −$55 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $83 −$5 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $34 +$48 +142%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 27 $44 $0 -1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 22 $58 $0 -0%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? May 22 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 21 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 21 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $59 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $115 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $83 −$13 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 20 $13 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 20 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $38 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 20 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $117 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $80 −$3 -3%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 20 $59 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $96 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 19 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $125 −$12 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $169 +$10 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $135 +$14 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $225 −$6 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $223 +$3 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $167 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $116 +$8 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $56 10h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $58 10h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $19 10h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $39 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 22h
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $47 22h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $68 22h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $70 34h
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $47 34h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $55 35h
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $64 35h
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $32 47h
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $32 47h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $78 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $78 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $0 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $0 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $55 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $81 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $27 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.00 · official $116.13 (match) · 258 history records