Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x316f…795a sports 508 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,128 (+5%) realized +$2,540 · open −$412
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%215W / 278L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day131.8pace
Fees−$729est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,724
7 days+$1,968
14 days+$1,442
30 days+$2,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,745
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -0.9% -10.3% 44% 41% -1.4%
≤30d 493 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 40% -4.6%
≤90d 493 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 40% -4.6%
all 493 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 40% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 40% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 37% -13.7%
15% -30.8% 32% -22.1%
20% -37.6% 26% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$42 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized+$2,540
Unrealized−$412
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses215 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$729
Open positions21
Markets (closed)493 / 508
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$80
Trades / day131.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 33¢ 68¢ $87 $179 +$93 (+106%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SPARTA 11¢ 50¢ $22 $100 +$78 (+359%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 31¢ 48¢ $57 $90 +$33 (+58%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
ITF San Gregorio: Kiara Nina Kucikova vs Paula Ormaechea Kiara Nina Kucikova 2¢ 1¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-70%)
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Noa Vukadin 2¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-75%)
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Eva Bennemann 1¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-95%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 55¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 23¢ 0¢ $259 $1 −$258 (-100%)
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab Kolos Kincses 21¢ 1¢ $17 $0 −$16 (-97%)
ITF Samobor: Luca Castagnola vs Nazar Oliynykov Nazar Oliynykov 48¢ 1¢ $30 $0 −$29 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 23¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 22¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Clement Tabur 18¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SPARTA 41¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti Francesca Gandolfi 34¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $214 −$147 -69%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $87 −$1 -1%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $349 −$94 -27%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
ITF Klosters: Justin Schlageter vs Patrick Zahraj Jun 17 $28 +$18 +64%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $148 −$28 -19%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $14 +$9 +62%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $113 −$60 -53%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $51 +$16 +30%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $29 +$31 +106%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $28 +$26 +94%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $28 +$22 +77%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $26 +$93 +354%
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $28 +$11 +39%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $57 +$84 +148%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $28 +$27 +94%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Alberto Lim Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $57 +$127 +225%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $28 +$38 +136%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $143 +$93 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $116 −$66 -57%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $147 +$499 +338%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $28 +$46 +160%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $74 +$175 +235%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $22 +$14 +62%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $196 +$91 +46%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $144 −$144 -100%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $156 +$45 +29%
ITF Gyula: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Stefan Seifert Jun 16 $327 −$327 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $37 +$112 +304%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $57 +$53 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab BUY Filip Drab 75¢ $30 9m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 55¢ $30 16m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 80¢ $10 26m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 80¢ $4 26m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 80¢ $4 26m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 11¢ $1 42m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 11¢ $21 42m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 42¢ $28 49m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 24¢ $29 49m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 40¢ $30 49m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 18¢ $5 52m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 18¢ $22 52m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 16¢ $24 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti BUY Francesca Gandolfi 29¢ $29 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti BUY Francesca Gandolfi 54¢ $30 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti BUY Vittoria Paganetti 36¢ $27 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 13¢ $26 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 14¢ $28 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 27¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 27¢ $24 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 27¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 41¢ $27 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 41¢ $8 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 41¢ $7 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 40¢ $30 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 41¢ $12 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti BUY Vittoria Paganetti 52¢ $29 1h
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab BUY Kolos Kincses 21¢ $21 1h
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab BUY Kolos Kincses 21¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 54¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.17 · official $563.27 (match) · 3500 history records