Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3170…3bb7 sports 173 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%106W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$33
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$17
other 34% −$8
world 10% −$22
tech 10% −$3
crypto 3% −$6
culture 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -20.5% -28.0% 42% 24% -24.1%
≤30d 105 -19.6% -27.3% 44% 24% -22.9%
≤90d 128 -18.2% -26.0% 51% 23% -19.9%
all 172 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 29% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 29% -14.1%
10% -25.6% 17% -22.3%
15% -32.8% 13% -29.9%
20% -39.4% 7% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses106 / 66
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage126d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$20 +650%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +39%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 +$8 +786%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 +$13 +650%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$14 +681%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Human moon landing in 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 91¢ $1 6h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $2 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $2 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 39h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 39h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 325 history records