Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3170…0eab crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-2%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$68
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$1
other 24% −$1
world 15% −$1
crypto 10% +$20
sports 9% −$109
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.9% -12.2% 33% 17% -12.7%
≤30d 7 -16.8% -24.7% 29% 14% -13.7%
≤90d 12 -9.8% -18.4% 42% 8% -13.4%
all 39 -2.9% -12.1% 41% 3% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -11.6%
10% -20.6% 3% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 3% -27.8%
20% -35.3% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage374d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 18 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $615 −$1 -0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in April? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $575 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $24 +$20 +83%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $88 −$87 -99%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Apr 29 $65 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 January 12-18? Feb 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 14? Jan 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? Dec 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 25? Dec 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 14 $62 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $4800 on August 22? Nov 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Aug 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 28 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will Volt Netherlands win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jun 09 $217 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL No 100¢ $601 1h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY No 100¢ $602 1h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $579 1h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $615 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $88 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $24 7d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY LOS 34¢ $22 11d
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $39 49d
Will BNB dip to $400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 49d
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $26 49d
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $65 49d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $35 68d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $20 68d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $15 68d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 82d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $23 86d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 134d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 134d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 134d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $60 142d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $60 142d
Will Solana dip to $70 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $14 156d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 156d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $42 169d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $27 169d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $70 169d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $2 187d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $58 187d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $23 187d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records