Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3174…20c6 crypto 1204 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,089 (+3%) realized +$4,089 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate69%831W / 373L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$826
other 4% −$585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 +6.9% -3.3% 60% 60% -7.9%
≤30d 1201 -1.3% -10.7% 69% 35% -10.6%
≤90d 1204 -1.1% -10.5% 69% 35% -10.4%
all 1204 -1.1% -10.5% 69% 35% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 35% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 28% -19.0%
15% -26.9% 21% -26.8%
20% -34.1% 16% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$34 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$4,089
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses831 / 373
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1204 / 1204
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$118
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1204 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$66 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$34 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$62 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$51 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$32 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$53 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$73 +142%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$57 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$45 +173%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $51 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $51 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $51 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.01 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records