Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3176…3990
crypto · 350 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$1,458 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,459 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$6
Realized+$1,459
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses61 / 288
Open positions1
Markets (closed)349 / 350
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 1 History 349 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$202
14 days−$262
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $220 −$17 -8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 12 $22 −$8 -35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -82%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -79%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -88%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 09 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 05 $32 −$21 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? May 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $11 −$10 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $15 +$6 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $6 −$4 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 −$2 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $17 +$62 +374%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 22 $12 −$10 -82%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? May 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? May 19 $13 −$11 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 18 $8 −$6 -74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $118 +$137 +116%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 17 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? May 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15? May 14 $8 −$3 -34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 8? May 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 08 $40 −$7 -18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 07 $11 +$26 +248%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? May 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% +$1,780
crypto 26% −$839
finance 8% +$789
other 7% −$108
economics 4% −$144
weather 0% −$17
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 17h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $44 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? SELL No 0¢ $0 26h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY No 3¢ $2 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? SELL No 2¢ $1 41h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? BUY No 16¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -69.9% -72.8% 5% 5% -46.9%
≤30d 44 -53.9% -58.3% 16% 14% -30.9%
≤90d 142 -42.4% -47.9% 19% 18% -14.7%
all 349 -37.1% -43.1% 17% 16% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 16% +0.1%
10% -48.6% 15% -9.4%
15% -53.5% 13% -18.2%
20% -58.1% 12% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.43 · official $6.46 (match) · 1443 history records