Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x3179…30f9 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized +$165 · open −$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$125
politics 19% −$196
other 4% +$11
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.1% -56.7% 33% 33% +3.7%
≤30d 3 -52.1% -56.7% 33% 33% +3.7%
≤90d 3 -52.1% -56.7% 33% 33% +3.7%
all 5 +22.9% +11.2% 40% 40% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 40% -3.9%
10% +0.6% 40% -13.1%
15% -9.1% 40% -21.5%
20% -18.0% 20% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$678 vs −$408 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized+$165
Unrealized−$196
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage120d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $502 $306 −$196 (-39%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $52 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 +$16 +44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 08 $1,696 −$1,215 -72%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $391 +$1,340 +343%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $53 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $38 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $502 77d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $481 102d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,696 110d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,731 110d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $391 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.19 · official $358.19 (match) · 10 history records