Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

31 0x317b…6a83 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$20 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$158

Realized−$10

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions6

Markets (closed)1 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	27¢	28¢	$100	$106	+$6 (+6%)
Morocco leading at halftime?	Yes	23¢	24¢	$16	$16	+$0 (+2%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	9¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	3¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-53%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$122	−$20	-16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$172	1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	8h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	8h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	43¢	$20	9h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	9h
Morocco leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	23¢	$16	13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	13h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.18 · official $158.22 (match) · 9 history records