Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x317b…9400 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+2%) realized +$26 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$35
other 13% +$4
finance 5% +$1
politics 2% −$9
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 13 +5.8% -4.3% 54% 15% -7.4%
≤90d 22 +8.5% -1.9% 59% 18% -6.0%
all 36 +1.2% -8.5% 56% 14% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 14% -7.1%
10% -17.2% 8% -16.0%
15% -25.2% 8% -24.1%
20% -32.6% 6% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage453d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+5%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $67 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $111 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $46 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $29 +$2 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $54 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $44 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $84 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $60 +$9 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $45 +$9 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $54 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $13 +$13 +100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $56 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $39 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $49 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $8 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $10 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $6 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $62 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $46 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $46 24h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $37 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $9 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $46 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $47 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $56 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $62 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $62 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.45 · official $40.95 (match) · 134 history records