Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3181…32a0 crypto 1135 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$502 (-3%) realized −$502 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%708W / 427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$86
14 days−$166
30 days−$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$595
other 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 60% -4.6%
≤30d 1073 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 55% -13.2%
≤90d 1135 -4.1% -13.2% 62% 54% -12.8%
all 1135 -4.1% -13.2% 62% 54% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 54% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 49% -21.1%
15% -29.1% 35% -28.7%
20% -36.0% 23% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses708 / 427
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1135 / 1135
History coverage36d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1135 Trades
no open positions (358 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$29 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$29 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$22 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$13 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$12 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$12 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$26 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$15 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $18 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$3 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $34 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $13 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.00 (match) · 2359 history records