Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3181…0d57 crypto 845 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$499 (-1%) realized −$499 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate91%772W / 73L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$1,285
14 days−$1,240
30 days−$1,240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$810
other 2% −$9
finance 1% +$47
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 718 -1.7% -11.0% 95% 1% -14.7%
≤30d 726 -1.6% -11.0% 95% 1% -14.4%
≤90d 836 -1.1% -10.5% 92% 7% -11.4%
all 845 -1.2% -10.6% 91% 7% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 7% -11.5%
10% -19.1% 4% -19.9%
15% -26.9% 2% -27.7%
20% -34.1% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$38 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$499
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses772 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)845 / 845
History coverage115d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 845 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$6 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$3 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$46 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $48 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$39 -78%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $37 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $47 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2422 history records