Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3182…e598
crypto · 420 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$216 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$295 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses192 / 223
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)415 / 420
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day80.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 415 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$5
14 days−$54
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 67¢ 93¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 43¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo Seattle Storm 30¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) Seattle Storm 46¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -72%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $1 $0 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$9 +834%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 05 $2 $0 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$3 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $2 $0 -18%
XRP Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -75%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$4 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$2 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$85
sports 14% −$203
other 6% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +19.6% +8.2% 43% 35% -12.5%
≤30d 415 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 40% -23.5%
≤90d 415 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 40% -23.5%
all 415 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 40% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover80.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 40% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 33% -30.8%
15% -28.7% 18% -37.5%
20% -35.7% 13% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.38 · official $6.38 (match) · 1325 history records