trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | No | 41¢ | 96¢ | $415 | $957 | +$542 (+131%) |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? | No | 58¢ | 76¢ | $100 | $132 | +$33 (+33%) |
| Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30? | No | 0¢ | 84¢ | $0 | $75 | +$75 (+0%) |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 56¢ | $5 | $71 | +$66 (+1311%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $51 | $53 | +$2 (+4%) |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | No | 38¢ | 28¢ | $34 | $25 | −$9 (-26%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 89¢ | 90¢ | $18 | $18 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 90¢ | 91¢ | $9 | $9 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | Yes | 62¢ | 72¢ | $7 | $8 | +$1 (+16%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $35 | $3 | −$32 (-91%) |
| Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? | No | 72¢ | 47¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-35%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 12 | $362 | −$228 | -63% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 12 | $229 | +$35 | +15% |
| Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $44 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $83 | +$20 | +24% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | Jun 10 | $45 | −$7 | -15% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 10 | $25 | +$17 | +67% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | Jun 10 | $52 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 10 | $2,899 | −$1,672 | -58% |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | Jun 09 | $52 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $1,082 | +$30 | +3% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 08 | $1,472 | −$96 | -6% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 08 | $726 | +$28 | +4% |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? | Jun 08 | $334 | −$154 | -46% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? | Jun 07 | $94 | −$61 | -64% |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? | Jun 06 | $37 | +$3 | +8% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $584 | −$188 | -32% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | Jun 06 | $269 | +$23 | +8% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? | Jun 06 | $178 | +$68 | +38% |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | Jun 03 | $149 | +$14 | +10% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? | Jun 02 | $168 | +$160 | +95% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1,317 | −$379 | -29% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $801 | +$656 | +82% |
| Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | May 29 | $269 | +$101 | +38% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 18 | -6.2% | -15.1% | 56% | 22% | -32.5% |
| ≤30d | 23 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 61% | 30% | -22.6% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 61% | 30% | -22.6% |
| all | 23 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 61% | 30% | -22.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -6.2% | 30% | -22.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -15.2% | 26% | -30.0% |
| 15% | -23.4% | 22% | -36.8% |
| 20% | -30.9% | 13% | -43.0% |