Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3184…8ae9 crypto 316 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,205 (+5%) realized +$1,205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate70%222W / 94L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day46.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$77
14 days−$76
30 days+$790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$790
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -27.8% -34.7% 41% 34% -19.7%
≤30d 316 -0.3% -9.8% 70% 40% -6.6%
≤90d 316 -0.3% -9.8% 70% 40% -6.6%
all 316 -0.3% -9.8% 70% 40% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 40% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 28% -15.6%
15% -26.3% 22% -23.7%
20% -33.5% 19% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses222 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)316 / 316
History coverage30d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day46.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 316 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $62 +$62 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $156 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$23 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$6 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$15 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $86 +$76 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $67 −$56 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $73 −$70 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$11 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$8 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $156 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $151 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $19 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1652 history records