Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3185…fbcc other 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%11W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$2
other 26% −$3
politics 18% −$2
economics 9% $0
tech 5% −$1
culture 5% −$1
crypto 5% $0
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 177 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses11 / 166
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage165d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $226 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $41 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $38 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $38 8d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $40 21d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $40 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 32d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $47 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $42 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $42 121d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 121d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 121d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 121d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 121d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 121d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 121d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? SELL No 94¢ $42 121d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? BUY No 94¢ $42 121d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $21 121d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $23 121d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $45 121d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $47 121d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $47 121d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $46 121d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $46 121d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $45 121d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $45 121d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 567 history records