Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3185…2bb9
world · 44 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage264d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 2 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 65¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $13 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $45 +$2 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Oct 01 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 30 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $16 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% $0
other 17% $0
crypto 15% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $6 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $18 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 6h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 6h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 6h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $9 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $33 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $11 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $12 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $13 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $45 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $45 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $26 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -0.3% -9.8% 24% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.87 · official $24.05 (match) · 156 history records