Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3186…e9ca sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (199 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$525,019 (+75%) realized +$524,189 · open +$830
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%74W / 35L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$6,344per market
Trades / day199.0pace
Fees−$8,287est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35,579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$36,430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (199 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +5.7% -4.4% 67% 33% -8.2%
≤30d 109 +6.3% -3.8% 68% 47% -4.7%
≤90d 109 +6.3% -3.8% 68% 47% -4.7%
all 109 +6.3% -3.8% 68% 47% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 47% -4.7%
10% -13.0% 28% -13.8%
15% ← realistic here -21.4% 15% -22.1%
20% -29.1% 10% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$8,721) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,494 vs −$2,141 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$35,579
Realized+$524,189
Unrealized+$830
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses74 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$8,287
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$6,344
Trades / day199.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 98¢ 100¢ $34,749 $35,579 +$830 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2,148 −$323 -15%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,406 +$1,551 +64%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,741 +$53 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,660 −$1,954 -74%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $8,721 +$1,496 +17%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6,387 +$1,377 +22%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5,182 −$1,065 -20%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8,404 +$221 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,624 +$792 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6,134 +$224 +4%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,988 +$607 +15%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,031 +$123 +4%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5,151 +$3,690 +72%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $11,228 −$1,012 -9%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $295 +$8 +3%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $245 −$3 -1%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10,745 +$808 +8%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,512 −$154 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $11,343 +$2,343 +21%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $7,012 −$865 -12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5,365 +$3,359 +63%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15,749 −$10,163 -64%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,712 +$287 +8%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $6,448 +$532 +8%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $9,474 +$2,034 +22%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $9,640 +$2,175 +23%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,009 +$324 +16%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $8,450 +$673 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $5,773 −$372 -6%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $9,462 −$2,371 -25%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $21,499 +$3,917 +18%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $7,948 +$4,480 +56%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $14,959 +$832 +6%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $11,161 +$5,153 +46%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $4,145 +$329 +8%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4,614 +$1,351 +29%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $8,629 +$1,557 +18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $7,925 +$4,640 +59%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $8,344 +$850 +10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $9,899 +$1,936 +20%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $11,139 +$3,515 +32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3,633 +$368 +10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $7,946 +$1,195 +15%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $8,461 +$3,218 +38%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10,432 −$3,175 -30%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $5,201 +$470 +9%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $8,522 −$3,207 -38%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $943 −$99 -10%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $11,277 −$3,458 -31%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $7,183 −$2,225 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $1,831 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $180 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $1,349 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $101 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $1,606 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $8,148 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $148 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $1,799 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $90 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $297 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $990 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $6,721 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $2,548 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $1,980 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $1,980 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $20 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $384 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $2,958 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $202 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 12¢ $274 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $207 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 13¢ $134 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $200 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 12¢ $141 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 17¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 17¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 17¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 17¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,579.24 · official $35,579.24 (match) · 3500 history records