Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3186…1754 crypto 972 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,848 (-4%) realized −$1,848 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%397W / 916L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4,728
sports 1% +$162
other 1% −$22
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 -90.9% -91.7% 3% 2% -86.1%
≤30d 402 -88.2% -89.3% 4% 3% -85.0%
≤90d 1313 -37.7% -43.7% 30% 27% -28.8%
all 1313 -37.7% -43.7% 30% 27% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.7% 27% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -49.0% 25% -35.6%
15% -54.0% 21% -41.8%
20% -58.5% 17% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$1,848
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses397 / 916
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1313 / 972
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$14 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $52 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $34 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $31 5h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 16h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $22 16h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 32h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 46h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 46h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.14 · official $41.14 (match) · 3500 history records