Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x318b…45c2 sports 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized −$38 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate13%20W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day74.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$37
other 5% −$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -1.4% -10.8% 13% 4% -12.6%
≤30d 158 -1.4% -10.8% 13% 4% -12.6%
≤90d 158 -1.4% -10.8% 13% 4% -12.6%
all 158 -1.4% -10.8% 13% 4% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 4% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 3% -20.9%
15% -27.2% 3% -28.6%
20% -34.3% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 138
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)158 / 168
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day74.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Cabo Verde to win the second half? No 97¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? No 93¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Uwinks 5¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+62%)
Cabo Verde to win the second half? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grey Trac 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Yes 97¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Yue Yuan 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Tereza Valentova 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $13 −$3 -20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $12 −$1 -8%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $1 +$10 +1116%
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $13 −$3 -21%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $11 +$6 +59%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $11 −$1 -8%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $1 $0 -62%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $0 $0 -29%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 14 $11 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Grey Trac 4¢ $0 7m
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin SELL Oliver Tarvet 9¢ $1 15m
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Oliver Tarvet 7¢ $1 16m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 99¢ $10 18m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Maria Timofeeva 8¢ $1 23m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 8¢ $1 24m
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 99¢ $11 29m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha SELL Magdalena Frech 5¢ $1 34m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Magdalena Frech 6¢ $1 34m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 95¢ $10 39m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Yue Yuan 9¢ $1 39m
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage SELL VARREL 95¢ $10 46m
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY VARREL 96¢ $10 1h
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 5¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 94¢ $10 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 7¢ $1 1h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Max Schoenhaus 6¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 6¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Lulu Sun 7¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Lulu Sun 7¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Cloud Rising 9¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 92¢ $10 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY Top Esports Challenger 7¢ $1 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $10 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 7¢ $1 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $10 5h
Cabo Verde to win the second half? BUY No 97¢ $10 5h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 7¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.93 · official $25.93 (match) · 432 history records