Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x318b…b978 sports 432 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%217W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$44
14 days−$107
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$176
crypto 8% −$14
other 2% +$15
culture 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -21.5% -29.0% 56% 43% -24.5%
≤30d 192 -27.1% -34.0% 48% 42% -22.9%
≤90d 328 -18.7% -26.4% 52% 43% -17.9%
all 431 -15.2% -23.3% 50% 41% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 41% -16.4%
10% -30.6% 30% -24.4%
15% -37.3% 23% -31.7%
20% -43.5% 15% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses217 / 214
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)431 / 432
History coverage109d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $7 +$2 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$2 +205%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$7 +141%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $6 −$3 -54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 −$4 -37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$3 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$3 -82%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13 −$5 -38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$3 -74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$1 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 37m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 3¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 80¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 77¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 72¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 36¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $1 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $1 14h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 39h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.07 · official $1.07 (match) · 1392 history records