Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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31 0x318c…8cdb crypto 1471 markets active 3h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-2%) realized −$55 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate76%1114W / 355L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$33
14 days−$57
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$39
other 15% −$28
sports 2% −$9
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -4.9% -13.9% 75% 6% -11.5%
≤30d 845 -4.7% -13.8% 74% 7% -12.2%
≤90d 1267 -5.3% -14.4% 77% 9% -12.5%
all 1469 -3.7% -12.9% 76% 16% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 16% -11.6%
10% -21.2% 8% -20.1%
15% -28.8% 5% -27.8%
20% -35.8% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1114 / 355
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1469 / 1471
History coverage108d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.43 · official $27.43 (match) · 3166 history records