Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
31 0x3191…0665 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,373 (-14%) realized −$6,373 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$916per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,231
7 days+$399
14 days+$73
30 days+$948
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$6,443
politics 22% −$2,683
other 8% −$1,296
world 7% +$3,558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +95.1% +76.5% 38% 38% -1.8%
≤30d 22 +55.5% +40.7% 41% 36% -4.9%
≤90d 25 +37.0% +23.9% 36% 32% -23.1%
all 48 +19.6% +8.2% 42% 38% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 38% -24.8%
10% -2.2% 38% -32.0%
15% -11.6% 35% -38.6%
20% -20.3% 35% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,005) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$555 vs −$642 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$1,578
Realized−$6,373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage106d
Avg bet$916
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $978 $985 +$7 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 44¢ $600 $593 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$39 -38%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 21 $509 −$509 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,285 +$414 +32%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $8 +$89 +1116%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $83 +$343 +414%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $518 +$754 +146%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $103 −$96 -93%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $505 −$117 -23%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $317 −$104 -33%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $429 +$495 +115%
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) Jun 18 $33 −$32 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 18 $206 −$200 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $614 −$600 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 09 $331 −$326 -99%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $3,508 −$568 -16%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $3,488 +$25 +1%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $1,072 +$1,600 +149%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $1,419 +$1,481 +104%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $476 −$467 -98%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $1,603 −$1,587 -99%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 03 $921 +$477 +52%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $1,005 −$86 -8%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 04 $2,498 −$2,453 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $1,384 −$1,364 -99%
Canucks vs. Flames Mar 29 $595 −$574 -96%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $125 −$125 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $47 +$78 +165%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Mar 10 $400 −$400 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Kings vs. Blue Jackets Mar 09 $576 +$296 +51%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 09 $337 +$276 +82%
Blues vs. Ducks Mar 08 $750 −$750 -100%
Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 5.5 Mar 08 $780 −$30 -4%
Bruins vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Mar 08 $600 −$600 -100%
AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Mar 08 $558 +$822 +147%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $1,773 −$1,000 -56%
Wild vs. Avalanche Mar 08 $773 +$785 +102%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Mar 08 $713 +$61 +8%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 08 $1,907 −$968 -51%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $227 +$481 +212%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 08 $1,472 −$1,472 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $1,000 +$611 +61%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $998 +$863 +86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 07 $4,464 −$1,422 -32%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Mar 07 $600 +$369 +62%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Mar 07 $784 −$784 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 07 $996 +$788 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 15¢ $64 31m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $986 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $102 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $610 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $0 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $1,698 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $1,285 10h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $509 12h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan $8 19h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 19¢ $83 19h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $518 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) SELL Ecuador $7 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 52¢ $388 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 30¢ $0 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 30¢ $213 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $317 20h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 14¢ $103 20h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 66¢ $505 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 46¢ $429 26h
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) BUY Mexico $33 3d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico $206 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $614 3d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 53¢ $331 12d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 35¢ $1,064 17d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 36¢ $1,875 17d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 41¢ $1,957 17d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 39¢ $1,551 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 61¢ $1,544 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 80¢ $1,968 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 59¢ $452 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,577.72 · official $1,591.36 (match) · 125 history records