Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3192…df5b politics 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 66L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$15
other 3% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 72 -0.5% -9.9% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage637d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 31 $57 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? Nov 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Besiktas win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Six Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will George Kittle be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
State wide recount in Presidential Election? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Suggs win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross more than $25m on 3-day opening weekend Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $55 14h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 26h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 38h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 38h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $55 23d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $56 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 29d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 38d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 42d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 47d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 48d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $57 72d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $57 72d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 80d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 80d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $57 87d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $57 87d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 96d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 96d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 101d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 102d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $57 106d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $57 106d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 107d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 108d
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $57 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records