Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3193…cc5a
weather · 899 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$44 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$44 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses728 / 171
Open positions0
Markets (closed)899 / 899
History coverage52d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 899 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$45
14 days+$49
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$18 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$9 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$20 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$10 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 88% −$76
crypto 12% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 38% -6.5%
≤30d 581 -2.3% -11.6% 80% 17% -8.5%
≤90d 899 +0.3% -9.2% 81% 17% -9.2%
all 899 +0.3% -9.2% 81% 17% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 17% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 12% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 9% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2170 history records