Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x319d…43a5 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$167 (-18%) realized −$177 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$95
sports 22% −$18
other 19% −$32
crypto 18% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% -1.5%
≤30d 8 +23.6% +11.8% 62% 62% +11.8%
≤90d 20 -9.3% -18.0% 60% 45% -25.3%
all 31 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 42% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 42% -27.8%
10% -21.7% 39% -34.7%
15% -29.3% 26% -41.0%
20% -36.2% 23% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$26 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage148d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+45%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$7 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$46 +176%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 03 $14 +$12 +83%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns May 22 $6 +$8 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 03 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 03 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 03 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 31 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 31 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 28 $15 +$5 +34%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 20 $10 +$13 +132%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Mar 19 $10 +$42 +425%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 12 $117 −$52 -45%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $86 +$30 +35%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $51 +$35 +70%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $36 −$36 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $99 −$63 -64%
Spread: Patriots (-4.5) Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY 6¢ $9 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 13¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 55¢ $30 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 16d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $14 25d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns BUY Trail Blazers 43¢ $6 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 83d
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) BUY Arkansas Razorbacks 47¢ $10 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $10 86d
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats BUY Arkansas Razorbacks 23¢ $30 86d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 88d
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats BUY Santa Clara Broncos 42¢ $10 91d
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders BUY Akron Zips 27¢ $10 91d
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels BUY VCU Rams 43¢ $10 92d
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers BUY High Point Panthers 19¢ $10 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.95 · official $97.95 · 69 history records