Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x319f…500b sports 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,522 (+2%) realized +$3,491 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%126W / 123L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$741per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$992est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$8,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$7,314
sports 32% −$4,281
politics 20% −$2,988
crypto 2% +$12
tech 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -41.0% -46.6% 31% 27% -11.3%
≤30d 164 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 42% -9.6%
≤90d 249 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 45% -9.3%
all 249 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 45% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 45% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 41% -18.0%
15% -32.4% 31% -25.9%
20% -39.0% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$252 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$8,149
Realized+$3,491
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses126 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$992
Open positions11
Markets (closed)249 / 260
History coverage64d
Avg bet$741
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $3,753 $3,774 +$21 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,260 $1,446 +$186 (+15%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 80¢ $1,057 $1,051 −$7 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $946 $767 −$179 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $549 $590 +$40 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $157 +$7 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $88 $100 +$13 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $82 −$2 (-3%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $45 −$25 (-36%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $810 −$32 -4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 18 $37,625 −$2,519 -7%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $422 −$136 -32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $350 −$288 -82%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12,391 +$3,566 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $169 +$41 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $91 +$72 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $234 −$230 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $239 −$234 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $722 −$713 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $156 −$47 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,003 -99%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7,080 −$502 -7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $532 +$168 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $761 +$737 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $496 +$307 +62%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $742 +$308 +42%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $181 −$179 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $508 +$13 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $47 −$46 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $56 −$54 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,859 +$581 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$29 +92%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $200 −$169 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 10 $237 −$232 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,020 −$72 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,023 −$47 -2%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $571 −$99 -17%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $168 −$168 -100%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $142 −$140 -99%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $404 +$4 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2,089 +$369 +18%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $327 +$103 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 31 $26 +$21 +83%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $62 −$33 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $58 −$6 -10%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $240 +$23 +10%
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 1.5 May 31 $100 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 31 $102 +$27 +26%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 May 31 $4 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1,063 44m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $778 48m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 49¢ $2,522 54m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $564 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $286 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $100 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $220 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $1 3h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $10 4h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $2 4h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $2 4h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $11 5h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $1 5h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $1 6h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $1 6h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $100 7h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $183 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,753 7h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $66 8h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $66 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,149.16 · official $8,135.28 (match) · 1266 history records