Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31a0…5911
sports · 316 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$124 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66
Realized−$124
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses144 / 166
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions6
Markets (closed)310 / 316
History coverage33d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 6 History 310 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$64
14 days−$58
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 59¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 43¢ 50¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 53¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-75%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-75%)
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Leyre Romero Gormaz 43¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Ekaterina Alexandrova 77¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BetBoom Team 53¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-8.5) PortlandFire 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner PARIVISION 77¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Martin Landaluce 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Knicks 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) Phoenix Mercury 52¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 41¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 +$4 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $17 +$17 +99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $17 +$15 +88%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $11 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $12 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $22 +$11 +52%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $15 +$3 +21%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) Jun 12 $14 +$14 +99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $23 +$32 +140%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $16 +$15 +96%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $5 +$9 +163%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +28%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $8 +$5 +58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $19 −$10 -54%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $18 +$21 +115%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $29 −$18 -63%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $7 −$6 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $30 −$4 -12%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $18 +$17 +98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$15 +86%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $28 −$17 -61%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $19 +$14 +74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $11 +$3 +29%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$18 +87%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $23 +$22 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $23 +$19 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $23 −$23 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $22 −$22 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $21 +$18 +84%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $21 +$16 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $16 +$18 +110%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $16 +$19 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $16 +$13 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$131
other 1% −$23
world 0% $0
politics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $10 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 14h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 73¢ $33 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $7 18h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $8 27h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $8 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $8 30h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $8 30h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 68¢ $9 31h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 71¢ $11 2d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz 43¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 88¢ $34 2d
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang BUY Sonja Zhiyenbayeva 37¢ $10 2d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 63¢ $11 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 56¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $11 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) SELL Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $31 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) SELL Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $14 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) SELL Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $13 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $8 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 37¢ $5 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $1 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +1.2% -8.4% 48% 48% -13.6%
≤30d 289 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 46% -14.0%
≤90d 310 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 46% -12.3%
all 310 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 46% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 46% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 44% -20.7%
15% -26.4% 41% -28.4%
20% -33.6% 35% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.33 · official $66.33 (match) · 926 history records