Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
31 0x31a0…85a8 sports 33 markets active 19h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$7,777 (+102%) realized +$7,777 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$7,773
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +42.3% +28.7% 80% 80% -13.8%
≤30d 24 +35.6% +22.6% 54% 54% +5.4%
≤90d 29 +26.3% +14.2% 52% 52% +84.1%
all 29 +26.3% +14.2% 52% 52% +84.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 52% +84.1%
10% +3.3% 52% +66.5%
15% -6.7% 45% +50.4%
20% -15.8% 41% +35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$523 vs −$5 · ×101.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×108.83 per $1 lost it wins $108.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$7,777
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage86d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 37¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 34¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 +$4 +108%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$8 +62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +113%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $2 +$4 +186%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 05 $3 +$6 +223%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 03 $1 +$5 +525%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $2 +$4 +186%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 03 $7 +$2 +30%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $21 +$7 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 01 $2 +$4 +194%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 28 $4 +$6 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $6 +$6 +100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) May 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Mar 25 $4,979 +$5,394 +108%
Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Mar 24 $2,394 +$2,394 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 36¢ $3 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 42h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $13 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 7d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 44¢ $3 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 22¢ $1 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 12d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 31¢ $3 13d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 26¢ $3 14d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 15d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 44¢ $3 16d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 18d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 19d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 25¢ $2 20d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 22d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 23d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 24d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 26¢ $1 28d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $3 29d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $21 30d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 72¢ $5 31d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 72¢ $19 31d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 77¢ $7 32d
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 30¢ $4 33d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 26¢ $2 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.15 · official $112.15 (match) · 88 history records