Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31a0…446f politics 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 40L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$6
politics 28% −$8
world 14% −$1
culture 8% −$1
economics 7% −$1
tech 6% −$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 41 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 41 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$851) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage86d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? Jun 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $912 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $961 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $855 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $814 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $772 −$3 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $812 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 18 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 05 $189 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $92 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Apr 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Mar 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 29 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $43 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $18 2h
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 100¢ $17 2h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $15 3h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $11 3h
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 100¢ $21 3h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $26 3h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $61 5d
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $956 5d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $904 5d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $172 5d
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $34 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $697 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $266 5d
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $964 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records