Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31a5…23e9 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+8%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$9
other 11% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -37.6% -43.6% 32% 27% -10.9%
≤30d 74 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 28% -9.4%
≤90d 74 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 28% -9.4%
all 74 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 28% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 28% -9.4%
10% -29.4% 23% -18.1%
15% -36.2% 20% -26.0%
20% -42.5% 18% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$25 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $52 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 01 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $1.96 (match) · 169 history records