Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31a5…b589 world 88 markets active 10h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,855 (-1%) realized −$9,740 · open +$885
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate70%57W / 25L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,330per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$61,217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$1,594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$7,488
economics 9% +$226
other 4% −$1,018
sports 1% −$49
crypto 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 60% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +1.5% -8.1% 80% 13% -8.4%
≤90d 81 -3.5% -12.7% 70% 9% -10.7%
all 82 -3.5% -12.7% 70% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 9% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 4% -19.3%
15% -28.7% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$8,225) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$636 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$61,217
Realized−$9,740
Unrealized+$885
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses57 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)82 / 88
History coverage97d
Avg bet$8,330
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $22,109 $22,481 +$372 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $19,492 $19,961 +$470 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $8,756 $8,774 +$18 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,910 $6,914 +$4 (+0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,702 $2,720 +$17 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $364 $367 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $10,488 +$113 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $29,117 +$373 +1%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 11 $9,257 −$80 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $4,441 −$492 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $2,261 +$141 +6%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 03 $971 +$106 +11%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $3,411 +$161 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $17,333 +$14 +0%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, May 31 $8,225 +$72 +1%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 28 $984 +$59 +6%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $1,002 +$113 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $25,139 +$322 +1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 24 $1,044 −$181 -17%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 23 $18,252 +$832 +5%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May May 21 $981 +$41 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $10,052 +$438 +4%
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-M May 13 $1,910 +$10 +0%
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3 May 13 $2,117 +$43 +2%
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3 May 13 $2,109 +$21 +1%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May May 13 $5,095 +$227 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $33,322 −$9,433 -28%
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31? May 06 $2,359 +$51 +2%
Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 8? May 06 $9,108 +$92 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $36,618 +$985 +3%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 01 $5,713 +$95 +2%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 May 01 $6,866 +$118 +2%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 01 $6,456 +$89 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $52,737 +$113 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 22 $2,721 −$1,072 -39%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $2,983 +$22 +1%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less tha Apr 14 $1,553 +$60 +4%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Apr 11 $1,412 −$37 -3%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Apr 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait o Apr 09 $1,843 +$19 +1%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 08 $2,065 −$410 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 08 $10,814 −$139 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 08 $676 +$161 +24%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 07 $134 −$71 -53%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Apr 07 $162 −$143 -88%
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5 Apr 07 $235 +$50 +21%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-Ap Apr 07 $230 +$63 +27%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5 Apr 07 $1,566 +$87 +6%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5 Apr 07 $1,690 +$109 +6%
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5 Apr 07 $3,122 +$41 +1%
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5 Apr 07 $5,662 +$91 +2%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 07 $5,663 +$220 +4%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 07 $294 −$64 -22%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 07 $62 −$27 -43%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 07 $183 +$48 +26%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $24,970 −$517 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $594 9h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 10h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $4,032 13h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6,275 14h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $215 22h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $149 29h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $6,638 44h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10,793 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $10,273 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 99¢ $1,663 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3,807 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5,976 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8,964 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2,931 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12,948 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6,832 5d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2,881 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $3,949 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6,294 6d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4,507 6d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1,788 6d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $899 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $1,504 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2,402 6d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1,025 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $1,546 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $23 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $144 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,216.88 · official $61,216.88 (match) · 888 history records