Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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31 0x31a6…0dcf sports 361 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,595 (-4%) realized −$12,884 · open +$3,289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%137W / 206L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$742per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$4,533est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$13,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days−$1,410
14 days−$1,732
30 days−$27,811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$4,249
other 7% −$1,556
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +31.3% +18.8% 41% 41% -24.7%
≤30d 176 -37.2% -43.2% 24% 23% -48.0%
≤90d 340 -12.3% -20.6% 39% 33% -15.0%
all 343 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 34% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 34% -12.7%
10% -24.6% 30% -21.1%
15% ← realistic here -31.9% 26% -28.7%
20% -38.6% 19% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$700) neutral
Persistence
early +24% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$325 vs −$260 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$13,660
Realized−$12,884
Unrealized+$3,289
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses137 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4,533
Open positions18
Markets (closed)343 / 361
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$742
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 21¢ 35¢ $1,650 $2,761 +$1,111 (+67%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 22¢ $600 $2,601 +$2,001 (+333%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $1,784 $1,709 −$75 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,180 $1,281 +$101 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,000 $1,111 +$111 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,050 $896 −$154 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $440 $619 +$179 (+41%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $720 $494 −$226 (-31%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $153 $414 +$261 (+171%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $362 $394 +$32 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $280 $336 +$56 (+20%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $250 $296 +$46 (+19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $450 $294 −$156 (-35%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 14¢ 30¢ $62 $135 +$73 (+118%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$33 +73%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $66 +$100 +151%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $151 +$20 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 +$65 +87%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $42 +$78 +186%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -11%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $123 +$291 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $254 −$223 -88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $317 −$52 -16%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1,259 −$648 -52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $451 −$249 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $129 −$127 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $3,665 −$3,609 -98%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $133 +$76 +57%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $513 +$2,831 +552%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $355 +$319 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $325 −$320 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$148 +97%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $154 −$150 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 06 $7,103 +$54 +1%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,264 +$160 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,920 −$19 -1%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $237 −$119 -50%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $407 −$250 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 8h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $16 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 32h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 33h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 33h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $51 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 28¢ $26 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 28¢ $39 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 28¢ $28 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 28¢ $6 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $70 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $69 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $21 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $31 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $31 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $41 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 35¢ $42 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,659.51 · official $13,659.75 (match) · 3500 history records