Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x31a6…8135 crypto 113 markets active 2d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$690 (+15%) realized +$690 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%53W / 60L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$33
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$422
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -38.0% -43.9% 38% 38% -44.1%
≤30d 18 -72.4% -75.1% 17% 17% -73.8%
≤90d 113 -5.1% -14.1% 47% 44% -0.9%
all 113 -5.1% -14.1% 47% 44% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 44% -0.9%
10% -22.3% 41% -10.4%
15% -29.8% 33% -19.0%
20% -36.7% 29% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$20 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$690
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses53 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage61d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 19 $29 −$18 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 19 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 19 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 05 $20 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 05 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 05 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 05 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 05 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 05 $62 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 23 $119 −$53 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 23 $47 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 23 $24 +$16 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 23 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 21 $47 +$25 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 21 $45 +$123 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 21 $23 +$22 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 21 $52 −$28 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 20 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 20 $305 +$235 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 20 $103 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 20 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 20 $229 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 20 $221 +$76 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 20 $96 +$109 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 20 $29 +$26 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 20 $49 −$19 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 20 $33 +$34 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 18 $73 −$49 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 298 history records