trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | May 30 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score | Mar 23 | $68 | −$68 | -100% |
| Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and | Mar 21 | $1,583 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? | Mar 21 | $794 | −$6 | -1% |
| Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? | Mar 21 | $821 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in March? | Mar 21 | $824 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? | Mar 21 | $814 | −$1 | -0% |
| Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Mar 21 | $849 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Mar 21 | $812 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? | Mar 21 | $885 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clo | Mar 21 | $809 | −$1 | -0% |
| XRP Up or Down - March 2, 1AM ET | Mar 02 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down - February 28, 9PM ET | Mar 01 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down - February 28, 7AM ET | Mar 01 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down - February 26, 9PM ET | Feb 27 | $7 | +$7 | +100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 8PM ET | Feb 25 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down - February 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | Feb 25 | $13 | +$14 | +104% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9AM ET | Feb 21 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down - February 17, 2AM ET | Feb 18 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 7PM ET | Feb 18 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down - February 16, 11AM ET | Feb 17 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -8.4% | -17.1% | 17% | 0% | -10.3% |
| all | 22 | -31.7% | -38.2% | 18% | 9% | -10.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.2% | 9% | -10.9% |
| 10% | -44.1% | 9% | -19.4% |
| 15% | -49.5% | 9% | -27.2% |
| 20% | -54.5% | 9% | -34.3% |