Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31ab…5668 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+4%) realized +$37 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$39
sports 21% +$60
crypto 6% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +43.9% +30.2% 46% 46% -10.0%
≤30d 24 +43.9% +30.2% 46% 46% -10.0%
≤90d 24 +43.9% +30.2% 46% 46% -10.0%
all 24 +43.9% +30.2% 46% 46% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.2% 46% -10.0%
10% +17.7% 38% -18.6%
15% +6.4% 38% -26.5%
20% -4.1% 29% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +115% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)24 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 58¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26 −$6 -24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$14 +52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$5 +20%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$5 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $11 +$14 +130%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 −$24 -58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 +$16 +39%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$20 +189%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$42 +135%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$11 -41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 +$12 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$71 +1349%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$28 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$15 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $26 2h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $20 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $26 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $31 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 12¢ $11 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 22h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 82¢ $24 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $26 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $16 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $18 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $26 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $11 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $26 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $62 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $32 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $66 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.22 · official $239.22 (match) · 65 history records