Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x31ab…20e9 sports 407 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,296 (-6%) realized −$4,077 · open −$219
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%198W / 207L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$798est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$112
14 days−$8,381
30 days−$2,894
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$3,453
crypto 10% −$1,795
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -11.2% -19.6% 47% 47% -8.1%
≤30d 151 -17.7% -25.6% 46% 46% -18.6%
≤90d 395 -16.4% -24.4% 48% 47% -17.4%
all 405 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 48% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 48% -16.2%
10% -28.8% 48% -24.3%
15% -35.7% 42% -31.6%
20% -42.0% 32% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$138 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$789
Realized−$4,077
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses198 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$798
Open positions2
Markets (closed)405 / 407
History coverage93d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 64¢ 40¢ $713 $440 −$273 (-38%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage M80 53¢ 63¢ $295 $349 +$54 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $694 +$526 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $807 +$385 +48%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $540 +$266 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $364 +$175 +48%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $183 −$180 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $892 −$884 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $657 +$236 +36%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $522 +$135 +26%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $552 −$31 -6%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $433 +$120 +28%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $550 −$118 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -97%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $411 −$387 -94%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $470 −$60 -13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $45 −$44 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$26 +134%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$22 -83%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $250 −$145 -58%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $399 −$227 -57%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $297 +$101 +34%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $192 +$106 +55%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $205 −$13 -6%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $90 +$115 +128%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $622 −$613 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $390 +$231 +59%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $221 +$170 +77%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $288 −$285 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $179 +$110 +61%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $91 +$87 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $53 +$39 +74%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $54 −$2 -3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $246 −$246 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $175 +$71 +40%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $90 +$86 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $99 −$93 -94%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 1 Jun 09 $107 −$9 -8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 08 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: NRG Esports vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 08 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 45¢ $46 18m
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 55¢ $253 19m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 64¢ $721 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 100¢ $1,220 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 56¢ $694 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $1,192 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $9 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $798 5h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $806 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 66¢ $540 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $539 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 67¢ $364 10h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY JiJieHao 44¢ $81 11h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY JiJieHao 43¢ $102 11h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 72¢ $4 13h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 70¢ $888 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $657 22h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $522 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $521 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $552 23h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner SELL ROSE 100¢ $553 23h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner BUY ROSE 78¢ $433 24h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 36¢ $433 24h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $1 24h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $549 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $24 24h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL FlyQuest 3¢ $24 24h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 49¢ $411 25h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Division One 49¢ $410 25h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 54¢ $470 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $789.01 · official $789.01 (match) · 876 history records