Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
31 0x31ac…aac5 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+3%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%23W / 28L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$3
other 28% +$25
politics 9% $0
crypto 3% +$1
tech 3% +$1
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 46% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 46% 8% -8.9%
all 51 +12.1% +1.4% 45% 6% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 6% -6.5%
10% -8.3% 2% -15.4%
15% -17.2% 2% -23.6%
20% -25.3% 2% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.21 per $1 lost it wins $9.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses23 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage474d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $82 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Dec 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $1 $0 -6%
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May? May 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 27 $1 $0 -49%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $20 $0 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 26 $6 +$1 +14%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 26 $21 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 25 $4 +$26 +614%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 21 $3 $0 +8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $3 $0 +4%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 08 $14 $0 -2%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 07 $7 $0 +4%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 26 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 25 $17 $0 -1%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 30 $17 $0 -2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 19 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $18 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $13 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $33 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $37 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $35 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $6 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $25 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $29 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $5 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.88 · official $34.88 (match) · 175 history records