Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:56:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
31 0x31ac…2a39 crypto 739 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,976 (-3%) realized −$2,880 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%334W / 402L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$1,277est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days−$1,153
14 days−$1,555
30 days−$2,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$3,795
crypto 22% −$2,012
other 3% +$1,056
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -16.0% -24.0% 42% 39% -27.9%
≤30d 142 -15.5% -23.5% 45% 42% -17.5%
≤90d 516 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 41% -14.9%
all 736 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 42% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 42% -13.3%
10% -25.3% 38% -21.6%
15% -32.5% 34% -29.1%
20% -39.1% 29% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$96 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized−$2,880
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses334 / 402
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,277
Open positions3
Markets (closed)736 / 739
History coverage128d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 736 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Moerani Bouzige Moerani Bouzige 56¢ 58¢ $321 $335 +$14 (+4%)
ITF Maanshan: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Hiroki Moriya Hiroki Moriya 62¢ 37¢ $89 $53 −$35 (-40%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $170 +$55 +32%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $99 +$71 +72%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $99 +$26 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $225 −$101 -45%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $82 +$16 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $71 +$11 +15%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $379 −$372 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $273 +$106 +39%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $166 +$107 +64%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $179 −$13 -7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$35 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $342 −$342 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $489 −$148 -30%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $393 +$401 +102%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $94 +$300 +320%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $319 −$313 -98%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $42 −$5 -12%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $389 +$248 +64%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $107 +$80 +75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $72 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $106 −$104 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $331 −$325 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $153 +$4 +3%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $197 +$131 +66%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $305 −$300 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Thanapet Chanta Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $352 +$454 +129%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $161 +$192 +119%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $118 −$116 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $261 −$143 -55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $158 +$103 +66%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $396 −$392 -99%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $237 +$160 +67%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $222 −$219 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $189 +$32 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $97 +$136 +140%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $83 −$83 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $49 +$36 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $26 −$12 -45%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $75 −$26 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $23 +$10 +46%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $30 +$12 +41%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $461 +$88 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Maanshan: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Hiroki Moriya BUY Hiroki Moriya 62¢ $90 19m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 31¢ $76 1h
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Moerani Bouzige BUY Moerani Bouzige 56¢ $101 1h
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Moerani Bouzige BUY Moerani Bouzige 56¢ $224 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $170 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $170 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 57¢ $99 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 58¢ $102 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 43¢ $102 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $123 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $123 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $99 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $99 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $82 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 93¢ $82 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $71 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 41¢ $71 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $71 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 30¢ $70 4d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 54¢ $72 4d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 38¢ $379 4d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 87¢ $380 4d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 62¢ $273 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 66¢ $273 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $166 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 46¢ $166 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 48¢ $179 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $46 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $81 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.70 · official $394.46 · 2030 history records