Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31ad…8b71 crypto 778 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (426 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,883 (-51%) realized −$18,883 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%410W / 509L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day426.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$13,608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (426 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 880 -22.5% -29.9% 43% 34% -53.3%
≤30d 919 -18.6% -26.4% 45% 37% -50.1%
≤90d 919 -18.6% -26.4% 45% 37% -50.1%
all 919 -18.6% -26.4% 45% 37% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover426.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 37% -50.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 36% -54.8%
15% -39.9% 36% -59.2%
20% -45.8% 36% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -96% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$90 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18,883
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses410 / 509
Open positions0
Markets (closed)919 / 778
History coverage7d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day426.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records