Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
31 0x31ae…ab5e crypto 1531 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,198 (+9%) realized +$21,411 · open −$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate80%1230W / 300L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$1,138
14 days+$3,046
30 days+$3,780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15,570
other 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +6.5% -3.7% 88% 38% -4.2%
≤30d 229 +9.6% -0.8% 87% 42% -4.0%
≤90d 739 +8.5% -1.8% 83% 38% -5.8%
all 1530 +12.8% +2.0% 80% 47% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 47% -3.9%
10% -7.7% 28% -13.1%
15% -16.6% 19% -21.5%
20% -24.8% 14% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$91 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$21,411
Unrealized−$213
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1230 / 300
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1530 / 1531
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$162
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $214 $2 −$213 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $225 +$75 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $296 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $129 +$171 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $295 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $252 +$48 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $231 +$69 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $213 +$87 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $280 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $292 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $260 +$40 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $226 −$226 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $269 +$31 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $252 +$48 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $271 +$29 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $239 +$61 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $222 +$78 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $292 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $290 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $268 +$32 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $295 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $271 −$271 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $290 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $269 +$31 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $292 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $254 +$46 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $249 +$51 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $292 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $272 +$28 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $295 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $289 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $293 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $290 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $283 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $272 +$28 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$223 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $268 +$32 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $288 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $273 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $250 +$50 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $290 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $254 +$46 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $218 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $225 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $296 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $129 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $166 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $295 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $252 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $231 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $213 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $280 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $292 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $260 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $269 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $226 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $252 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $271 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $239 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $222 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $292 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $290 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $268 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $295 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $271 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $290 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $269 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $292 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.50 · official $283.50 · 3500 history records