trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -36.8% | -42.8% | 33% | 17% | -31.6% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -36.8% | -42.8% | 33% | 17% | -31.6% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -36.8% | -42.8% | 33% | 17% | -31.6% |
| all | 18 | -44.6% | -49.9% | 17% | 6% | -39.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -49.9% | 6% | -39.1% |
| 10% | -54.7% | 6% | -44.9% |
| 15% | -59.1% | 0% | -50.3% |
| 20% | -63.1% | 0% | -55.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $50 | $48 | −$2 (-4%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 41¢ | 42¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 47¢ | 52¢ | $14 | $15 | +$2 (+12%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | 60¢ | 69¢ | $10 | $12 | +$2 (+16%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | No | 71¢ | 80¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+13%) |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 69¢ | 69¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 26 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Jun 26 | $30 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 23 | $11 | −$8 | -70% |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $15 | −$11 | -72% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 20 | $12 | +$3 | +23% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | Jun 20 | $11 | −$10 | -95% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Feb 08 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5 | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Hawks | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 05 | $2 | $0 | -14% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 04 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 04 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-03? | Feb 04 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Feb 03 | $29 | −$19 | -67% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? | Feb 03 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? | Feb 03 | $10 | −$8 | -84% |