Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31af…5c86 weather 860 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-0%) realized +$181 · open −$276
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate56%459W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$672
7 days+$673
14 days+$623
30 days+$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% +$133
crypto 21% −$468
other 0% −$1
sports 0% +$29
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 +17.2% +6.0% 66% 20% +0.4%
≤30d 420 +10.8% +0.2% 80% 15% -5.6%
≤90d 725 -14.4% -22.6% 54% 14% -16.6%
all 817 -1.7% -11.1% 56% 20% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 20% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 15% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 14% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,418
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$276
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses459 / 358
Open positions42
Markets (closed)817 / 860
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 817 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Yes 48¢ 51¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $31 $145 +$115 (+375%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $123 $113 −$10 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June 19? No 96¢ 94¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 97¢ 95¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 44¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $32 $47 +$15 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $39 $44 +$6 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $40 $44 +$5 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $45 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $49 $42 −$7 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 43¢ 70¢ $21 $34 +$13 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Yes 20¢ 9¢ $49 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? Yes 34¢ 10¢ $79 $22 −$57 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 7¢ $71 $21 −$50 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$10 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $31 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $196 −$43 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 −$8 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $134 +$308 +229%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 17 $55 −$7 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $173 −$57 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$108 +345%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $22 −$16 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 16 $53 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $32 +$8 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$24 +227%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$129 +362%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$112 +655%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $31 −$11 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $39 −$37 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$201 +545%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$41 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $48 −$46 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $36 −$34 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $49 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 17m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 17m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $45 17m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June BUY No 96¢ $100 24m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 34m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 35m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? SELL Yes 33¢ $27 42m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 49¢ $44 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 46¢ $59 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,418.33 · official $1,422.00 (match) · 3487 history records