Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31b2…8594 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$222 (+5%) realized +$182 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%24W / 41L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$86
sports 35% +$74
world 2% −$47
crypto 1% +$37
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -8.4% -17.1% 37% 37% +0.6%
≤30d 65 -8.4% -17.1% 37% 37% +0.6%
≤90d 65 -8.4% -17.1% 37% 37% +0.6%
all 65 -8.4% -17.1% 37% 37% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 37% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 32% -9.0%
15% -32.3% 28% -17.8%
20% -38.9% 22% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$28 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses24 / 41
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions10
Markets (closed)65 / 75
History coverage6d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 49¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 10¢ 12¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $202 +$72 +36%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $201 +$46 +23%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$19 +63%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$7 -58%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $522 −$301 -58%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$15 -71%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $201 +$34 +17%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$23 -75%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$154 +51%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $221 −$41 -18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$80 +400%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$18 -87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$22 -70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 +$85 +414%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$123 +201%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $81 +$26 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$39 +13%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$44 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 −$11 -37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $111 +$74 +66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$16 +308%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -82%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $82 +$35 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 20¢ $3 49m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 3¢ $10 53m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $202 4h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $52 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $20 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $73 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $215 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $23 30h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 34h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 34h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 34h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.79 · official $348.79 (match) · 140 history records