Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
31 0x31b2…1f93 world 518 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$324 (+12%) realized +$343 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate61%293W / 190L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days−$48
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$111
other 26% +$166
politics 26% −$56
crypto 6% +$26
sports 3% −$6
culture 2% −$22
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% +$7
economics 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +1.4% -8.2% 54% 34% -7.8%
≤30d 138 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 27% -10.4%
≤90d 441 +8.5% -1.9% 60% 20% -3.8%
all 483 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 21% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 21% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 16% -11.4%
15% -17.4% 11% -20.0%
20% -25.5% 10% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$343
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses293 / 190
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions42
Markets (closed)483 / 518
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 20¢ 46¢ $9 $22 +$13 (+132%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? No 90¢ 87¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 52¢ 68¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 61¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 33¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+204%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 96¢ 95¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 32¢ 74¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+130%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+46%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No 75¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 97¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? No 90¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii in 2026? No 92¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? No 90¢ 75¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+19%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No 54¢ 97¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $25 −$4 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$17 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$16 +255%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$20 +98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$14 +137%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +85%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 +$2 +49%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +156%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -14%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $8 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $8 −$3 -35%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -8%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$5 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 18¢ $2 45m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 10¢ $2 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 11¢ $2 46m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $7 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 6h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 60¢ $5 6h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 59¢ $9 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 8h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 97¢ $2 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 96¢ $2 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 96¢ $2 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 10h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 63¢ $5 12h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 61¢ $5 12h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 60¢ $5 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.32 · official $196.35 (match) · 3500 history records